Roland Garros 2025 Recap

We crowned two very worthy champions in Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz, both of whom were our picks to win in our first run of the simulator after the draw came out. The final singles match of the tournament – the men’s final – was a thrilling display of some of the greatest tennis we have ever seen. Over 5 hours and 32 minutes, the second-longest final in Grand Slam history, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner played at an impossibly high level. Alcaraz came back from down 2 sets to 0 to win. With Alcaraz serving at 3-5 0-40 in the 4th set, Sinner’s win probability got as high as 99.1%. But Alcaraz saved all 3 match points and hit another level, moving like 5 hours on court was nothing and cracking unbelievable forehands, to claw his way back to win in a fifth-set super tiebreaker.

Our Excitement Index does a good job of describing what happened in the women’s final. Aryna Sabalenka almost never pops up on our rankings of best matches because she almost always does a very good job of keeping Excitement Index down. It is how she plays, and it helps her win a lot (Roland Garros was her 7th final of 2025, and she has won 3 of them). Except for when Coco Gauff is on the other side of the net. They have played 4 times with an Excitement Index over 70: Lexington 2020, Toronto 2022, Wuhan 2024, and Roland Garros 2025. Outside of the WTA Tour Finals, in matches with an Excitement Index under 70, Sabalenka is 4-2. With an Excitement Index over 70, Gauff is 3-1. Aryna Sabalenka does know how to beat Coco Gauff. About 5 weeks ago, Sabalenka beat Gauff with an Excitement Index of 45.2 in the Madrid Final. So, what changes when Gauff beats Sabalenka, as she did on Saturday? Sabalenka’s first serve. To beat Gauff, she has typically had to both make those serves and win at a high rate behind them. In that match, she did neither. She made just 59% of first serves and won just 48% of points behind it. For comparison, she made 69% and won 68% in the Madrid final. Credit for that is shared between the two players, including in the way they, their games, and Sabalenka’s toss (which is too high) adapt to the wind, but those percentages on the first serve being lower than necessary is a pattern worth watching for Sabalenka, especially on clay.

The best story of the women’s draw was not a single match but a 13-day run. France’s Lois Boisson, the World #361, beat 3 seeds to reach the semifinals. No woman beat 4 seeds, but Boisson joins the finalists, Gauff and Sabalenka, as the only women to take out 3. This includes her Round of 16 win over #3 seed Jessica Pegula and her Quarterfinal win over #6 seed Mirra Andreeva, both in epic 3-set fashion and with incredible home-crowd support from Court Philippe-Chatrier. Despite having nothing for Coco Gauff in the semifinals, this run changed Boisson’s life. She nearly quintupled her career earnings, allowing her not to worry about money for the rest of her 20s as she continues to develop. She also moved up 296 spots in the rankings, from 361 to 65, which will allow her direct entry into almost all the big tournaments for the next 12 months (that starts 6 weeks from now, so she still needs some help to get into Wimbledon). In addition to allowing her the experience of playing in the biggest events, those big-tournament entries will also compound her earnings, with prize money likely reaching over $300,000 if she stays healthy and plays them all, even before she wins a single match.

Finals

Women’s Final: Coco Gauff def. Aryna Sabalenka, 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4 (Excitement Index: 89.09, Excitement Average: 0.42)

Men’s Final: Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner, 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) (Excitement Index: 99.50, Excitement Average: 0.27)

Matches of the Tournament

Men’s Match of the Tournament: Final, Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner, 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) (Excitement Index: 99.50, Excitement Average: 0.27)

Women’s Match of the Tournament: Round of 16, Lois Boisson def. Jessica Pegula, 3-6 6-4 6-4 (Excitement Index: 91.14, Excitement Average: 0.44)

What Comes Next

The Tours have already moved onto the very short grass court season. It will culminate at Wimbledon, where qualifying starts on June 23 (at Roehampton) and the main draw starts on the 30th. This week, both the men and women are playing in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands, the women play their inaugural event at the iconic Queen’s Club in London, and the men play in Stuttgart. The non-Wimbledon crown jewels of the grass court season will be played next week, when the men play at Queen’s Club and the women play in Berlin. The field in Berlin is so stacked that the main draw ranking cutoff is 17. For comparison, it is around 98 at the Grand Slams. Berlin is a 16-player tournament, and the only player in the top 16 not currently entered into the event is #7 Iga Swiatek, who famously does not take well to the grass.