Wimbledon 2025 Preview

Recently, Wimbledon has been both the most and least predictable Grand Slam on the tennis calendar. On the men’s side, 9 players have won the title since 1993, and just 5 unique champions since 2003. The women, on the other hand, have had 10 different champions since 2013. And since there was no Wimbledon in 2020, that is 10 different champions in the last 11 times it was held.

We simulated through the men’s and women’s brackets 10,000 times. It is incredibly close at the top on the women’s side, with just a 0.7% gap between the top two and 14 players having at least a 1% chance to win the title (compared to just 7 on the men’s side). There is an incredible amount of information packed into the simulations, and we distill it for you into a few places to look over the next two weeks.

Title Favorites

Sabalenka’s Section Defines the Women’s Draw

The overall favorite and five of the top six in title probability among the women come from the bottom half of the draw. So why, then, would the top section of the top half of the women’s draw determine the way the women’s draw goes? Because of who is in there. Given the distribution of talent, if top seed Aryna Sabalenka makes the semifinals, she is more likely to win that match than either her Third Round or Round of 16 match. Her likely Third Round opponents are home favorite and British #1 Emma Raducanu, a player who beat Sabalenka 1 week ago in 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, and a very good ball striker in Nottingham champion and #32 seed McCartney Kessler. Her prize for clearing that hurdle would likely be either Elise Mertens or Elina Svitolina, who are each in the Top 10 in title probability in their own right. If Sabalenka were to clear all of those hurdles and reach the Quarterfinals, look for her to begin to separate herself as a heavy favorite to win the title. Iga Swiatek is currently our favorite at 22.7% with Sabalenka at 22%. But given that they each make even the Round of 16, Swiatek would go to 26.5% while Sabalenka would shoot up to 31.7%.

Lucky Loser to the Second Week?

Last year, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard lost in the final round of qualifying, got a spot in the main draw as a Lucky Loser, and made a run to the Round of 16. This year, Marton Fucsovics is positioned to have a chance at a similar run. He begins with Aleks Kovacevic, where we have Fucsovics as an 89% favorite. In the Second Round, Fucsovics would take on either Gael Monfils or Ugo Humbert. He has a 44% chance to make the Third Round, where he would likely face off against Ben Shelton. Shelton would be favored in that matchup, but Fucsovics has the 19th highest probability of making the Round of 16 at 28%.

Amanda Anisimova: One Match from Something Special

#13 seed Amanda Anisimova has one of the toughest First Round draws of any seed at Wimbledon in Yulia Putintseva, who will be ranked 33 on Monday. Despite having just a 56% win probability in that match, Anisimova has a 19% chance of making the Quarterfinals 8.5% chance of making the Semifinals. If she were to beat Putintseva, those numbers would jump to 34% to make the Quarterfinals and 15% to make the semifinals. That Anisimova-Putistseva match will be scheduled for Tuesday. If Anisimova is still in the draw on Wednesday morning, she will be in prime position to make a lot of noise.

Djokovic and Draper Cannibalize Each Other

In our simulations, Novak Djokovic won the title 9.9% of the time and Draper won 9%. There are two factors keeping then from joining Sinner and Alcaraz as the only men winning the title in over 10% of simulations. With Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz taking opposite sides of the draw by default, being in the same half as one of the two favorites was unavoidable. But the second factor is that they are in the same quarter as each other. Draper has an 84.5% chance of making the Quarterfinals and Djokovic is at 78.7%. This means that they face each other in nearly two thirds of simulations. The fact that both Djokovic and Draper drop from those lofty odds to make the Quarterfinals to below 50% to make the Semifinals shows that had one of them not been there, the other one would separate himself as a distinct third option to win the title. Jack Draper and Novak Djokovic’s collision course may be fantastic for us fans, but it is very bad luck for them.